Oscars 2026 predictions: who will win, who should win, and the films and performances to watch before this year’s Academy Awards
Few Oscar races in recent years have felt this open. With Paul Thomas Anderson finally a serious contender, Michael B. Jordan dominating awards-season conversation for Sinners, and performances like Rose Byrne’s in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You sparking intense online debate, the 2026 Academy Awards could be full of surprises.
Ahead of the 98th Academy Awards, taking place on Sunday, 15 March 2026, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, film writer Constanza Coscia breaks down the categories that matter most—from Best Picture and Best Director to the acting races that are splitting critics, Letterboxd communities, and awards-season prediction models. Who is most likely to win? Who actually deserves the Oscar? And which performances and films could still shift the conversation before the ceremony?
Part sharp prediction list, part cultural snapshot of this year’s awards season, this piece is a cinephile’s roadmap to the 2026 Oscars nominees, favourites, and potential upsets—the films everyone is debating online right now, and the ones worth watching before the Academy Awards on 15 March.
For a few weeks every year, the internet becomes a very specific kind of battlefield: cinephiles clashing over the Oscars.
You can already feel it online, in every digital corner populated by your film-obsessed friends, as anticipation builds for the 98th Academy Awards (Oscars 2026). Twitter fights are escalating. Instagram carousels won’t stop posting about it. And on Letterboxd, everyone’s homepage is filled with this year’s nominees.
So, if you’re trying not to feel completely lost this awards season—or want to impress your most devoted cinephile friend with suspiciously detailed knowledge—look no further. From Best Picture and Best Director to Best Actress and Best Actor, these are the races most likely to define the 2026 Oscars.
Why This Could Finally Be Paul Thomas Anderson’s Oscar Year
Category: Best Director
Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Who should win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Paul Thomas Anderson feels like the kind of director who must already have an Oscar somewhere in his house. But somehow, despite a career that gave us There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, and Boogie Nights, he still hasn’t won one.
This year’s line-up is unusually strong, with Ryan Coogler for Sinners, Chloé Zhao for Hamnet, and, my personal favourite, Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value. Still, there’s no denying that Paul Thomas Anderson is a brilliant director, and that it’s finally time for his recognition. One Battle After Another is also one of his best works to date.
The Academy often embraces the narrative of “it’s finally their time,” and while that logic can feel frustratingly political, sometimes it also aligns with the truth. In this case, it does.
The Best Actress Debate Dividing This Year’s Oscars: Jessie Buckley vs Rose Byrne
Category: Best Actress
Who will win: Jessie Buckley
Who should win: Rose Byrne
I have a very straightforward opinion when it comes to the Best Actress category this year, and it is not the one you will find in most prediction articles.
If you read most prediction columns, they’ll tell you Jessie Buckley has this category locked for Hamnet. But the performance that truly shook me this year was Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.
The film itself is one of the best of the year, yet its production company hasn’t given it the campaign push it deserves. A24 has clearly invested more energy into Marty Supreme. Don’t get me wrong—Timothée Chalamet is great in that film, but Rose Byrne exceeds any expectations in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.
Most people will tell you Jessie Buckley is going to take the Oscar in this category, and she probably will. But I think Byrne deserves it far more. Make sure you don’t miss her film before the ceremony, and you’ll see what I mean.
As one of my closest cinephile friends said: “Byrne was the best—I have seen Hamnet, I have seen Sentimental Value, and I can tell you 1000% that she was the best performance of this year. She carried that movie. She was the movie. She was so real, and such a great actress. But they want to give Jessie Buckley the 2026 Best Actress Oscar.”
Inside the Most Competitive Supporting Actress Race at the 2026 Oscars
Category: Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Teyana Taylor
Who should win: Amy Madigan
This is one of the most stacked acting categories this year. Wunmi Mosaku is phenomenal in Sinners, delivering a performance that quietly grounds the film’s larger spectacle. Elle Fanning steals several scenes in Sentimental Value, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas is equally memorable.
But the momentum seems to be behind Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another. It’s likely—and well deserved—that Taylor will take the Oscar home this year, but Amy Madigan, from Weapons, deserves it just as much. Not to invoke the “it’s time” excuse, but… it’s time. She should finally be recognised. And besides, she is quite fantastic in her film.
Benicio del Toro vs Stellan Skarsgård: The Supporting Actor Battle to Watch
Category: Best Supporting Actor
Who will win: Benicio del Toro
Who could win: Stellan Skarsgård
Who should win: Benicio del Toro
I mean, come on. One thing you have to give to One Battle After Another, even if you don’t like Paul Thomas Anderson or Leonardo DiCaprio, is Benicio del Toro. His performance is one for the ages, and even though he has taken home an Oscar before, this is another one he absolutely deserves.
Stellan Skarsgård could easily take the Best Supporting Actor prize at the 2026 Academy Awards, and he absolutely deserves it. But I do believe del Toro gave the better performance.
Michael B. Jordan’s Double Performance in Sinners Is Driving the 2026 Oscar Conversation
Category: Best Actor
Who will win: Michael B. Jordan
Who should win: Wagner Moura
Best Actor might be the most unpredictable race this year. Timothée Chalamet could still surprise everyone with Marty Supreme. Leonardo DiCaprio is typically impossible to ignore, especially in a Paul Thomas Anderson film. But the performance dominating conversation right now belongs to Michael B. Jordan in Sinners.
Jordan… well. His performance as The Smokestack Twins blows. Your. Freaking. Mind.
Sinners is nowhere near your typical Oscars-bait film, but its performances, script, cinematography, music, and more make it one of this year’s favourites. And Jordan is part of that hype. His performance is both technically impressive and emotionally convincing. It’s hard to portray twin brothers with enough nuance to make them feel like real siblings while still giving each a distinct identity, and Jordan excels at it.
That said, the performance I would personally reward is Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent. It’s controlled, layered, and quietly devastating. And if the Academy decided to surprise everyone with that choice, it would be one of the most exciting wins of the night.
The Oscars’ New Best Casting Category—and Why Sinners Could Win It
Category: Best Casting
Who will win: Sinners
Who should win: Sinners
This is the Academy’s brand-new Best Casting category at the Oscars, and no one quite knows how voters will approach it yet. Introduced at the 98th Academy Awards, the prize is meant to recognise the creative work behind assembling a film’s ensemble—something the Academy had never formally honoured before.
That being said… it has to be Sinners. There is no ensemble cast quite as great as this one. Every single performance adds something to the film, so why wouldn’t it take home the award?
Why Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value Is the International Film Everyone Is Talking About
Category: Best International Picture
Who will win: Sentimental Value
Who should win: Sentimental Value
As someone from South America, my instinct is always to say: give this award to a South American film.
In theory, that means I would want to see The Secret Agent win. But cinema loyalty has its limits, and Sentimental Value completely won me over this year. The cinematography is stunning, the performances are precise, and Joachim Trier’s direction creates an emotional atmosphere that lingers long after the credits roll.
Best Picture 2026: Is One Battle After Another the Safe Choice—or Could Sinners Pull Off the Upset?
Category: Best Picture
Who will win: One Battle After Another
Who could win: Sinners
Who should win: ???
It’s a tough call this year. Nearly every nominated film could walk away with the biggest award of the night: Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars.
Judging by other awards ceremonies, One Battle After Another currently feels like the safest bet. But then again—so could Sinners, since it has 16 (!) nominations in its pocket. For me, this isn’t really a matter of who should or shouldn’t win. I feel like almost every film nominated—except for one or two—deserves to take the prize.
Constanza Coscia
Editor, Professor and Alumna, Milano